our thinking

Informa Telecoms & Media’s new report, ‘Congestion up ahead? Internet traffic and service forecasts, 2010-2015’, calculates that overall Internet traffic will grow at just under 50% each year so that by 2015 the volume will be about seven times greater than today at 1.26 million petabytes per year.

Not surprisingly, by 2015, video will be the largest online application. Informa says that that in 2010, online video generated more traffic than peer-to-peer file-sharing for the first time ever and will grow far more quickly than peer-to-peer over the forecast period.

On what may be great news for consumer but a huge headache for network providers, Informa suggests that such consumption is the tip of the iceberg. It notes that the majority of video streams today are delivered at SD quality, to the PC. Because both HD, and delivery to connected TVs, will grow significantly over the forecast period, Informa deduces estimates that even if users watched no more video in 2015 than they do in 2010, traffic will still have grown significantly. Pointedly, it adds that by 2015, HD video will likely have accounted for more traffic than SD video, while video direct to TVs will make up 10% of total traffic.

Even though the analyst’s most aggressive forecast assumes only a small shift in viewing in viewing from TV to online, Informa regards it as clear that even a relatively small shift will have a massive impact on traffic overall.

Informa expects peer-to-peer to be a significant generator of video traffic, growing at around 30% each year over the forecast period, and it will continue to account for over 20% of total traffic.

etv’s view: we are already seeing UK ISP’s shaping video traffic at peak times and this growth is likely to increase the debate about net neutrality, especially in markets like the UK with an outdated IP delivery system.